Australia carries on doing the business with 2 one goal home wins but European football is going through a bit of a lean spell over the last two weekends, but nothing drastic.
I have two selections, one a little understaked as best price is with Bwin and they only ever let me get a return of £80 these days. The bet here is Benteke to score anytime for Villa. The price at 2.75 is considerably better than anywhere else (bar Sportingbet) and he has scored in his last four.
£30ish of Benteke to score anytime 2.75 Bwin
My other bet is in the late match in France and is a risky dutching selection. Lyon are a solid home team with a lot of to nil wins whereas Lille are a way off their form of the last couple of years but are relatively tight at the back. I am looking at a 1-0 2-0 combination with combined odds of around 4.67, as opposed to 3.7 (with Corals which is a non-option) for a straight win to nil.
£30 dutching Lyon to win 1-0 and 2-0 (8.0 and 11.0) VC/Betfair
Sunday 10 February 2013
Saturday 9 February 2013
The irony and Saturdays selection
I mentioned in my last post that Football Elite's change in strategy had piqued my interest, but I must admit I was a little disappointed when Matt mentioned that the increased number of bets would lead to a drop in write ups. I quite understand Matt's justification of time pressures and a dislike of writing, although I find his analysis very well explained, but I can never get into a service to the same level without an understanding of why selections are made.
I have subscribed to both Football Investor and The Football Analyst and while I have no doubt in their ability, my mentality makes it very hard to get through the rough patches when I don't fully understand why they are making the selections - beyond the hours of analysis and algorithms etc! I remember losing interest in Sportyy when Dani cut back dramatically the number of write ups and found myself not renewing my subscription.
Don't get me wrong, I don't feel the service is any worse for profitability without detailed analysis but both in terms of confidently placing the bets and learning from the experience of a professional I would prefer to have it.
It is therefore with great regret and no little irony that I have to welch out on the write ups myself for Saturday's bets due to a lack of time. I will endeavour to explain after the weekend my reasoning. I have grouped the bets by type rather than league.
Dutched selctions (all total £50)
Tottenham to beat Newcastle by 1 or 2 goals - 3.75 and 5
Burnley to beat Bolton by 1 and score draw -
Win/Asian Handicap
£50 Hannover to beat Hoffenheim 2.25
£50 Frankfurt -0.75 to beat Nuremberg 2.11
£45 Levante to beat Malaga 2.62
Winning margin (all £30)
Norwich to beat Fulham by 1 4.00
(Sydney to beat Brisbane by 1 5.00 - mentioned yesterday)
Draw
£25 Swansea - QPR 3.69
£10 0-0 11.5 in above match
HT Draw
£45 Sunderland - Arsenal 2.25
Hopefully will have more time for write-ups tomorrow. Best of luck with your choices.
I have subscribed to both Football Investor and The Football Analyst and while I have no doubt in their ability, my mentality makes it very hard to get through the rough patches when I don't fully understand why they are making the selections - beyond the hours of analysis and algorithms etc! I remember losing interest in Sportyy when Dani cut back dramatically the number of write ups and found myself not renewing my subscription.
Don't get me wrong, I don't feel the service is any worse for profitability without detailed analysis but both in terms of confidently placing the bets and learning from the experience of a professional I would prefer to have it.
It is therefore with great regret and no little irony that I have to welch out on the write ups myself for Saturday's bets due to a lack of time. I will endeavour to explain after the weekend my reasoning. I have grouped the bets by type rather than league.
Dutched selctions (all total £50)
Tottenham to beat Newcastle by 1 or 2 goals - 3.75 and 5
Burnley to beat Bolton by 1 and score draw -
Win/Asian Handicap
£50 Hannover to beat Hoffenheim 2.25
£50 Frankfurt -0.75 to beat Nuremberg 2.11
£45 Levante to beat Malaga 2.62
Winning margin (all £30)
Norwich to beat Fulham by 1 4.00
(Sydney to beat Brisbane by 1 5.00 - mentioned yesterday)
Draw
£25 Swansea - QPR 3.69
£10 0-0 11.5 in above match
HT Draw
£45 Sunderland - Arsenal 2.25
Hopefully will have more time for write-ups tomorrow. Best of luck with your choices.
Friday 8 February 2013
One goal margins for Friday
Interlull over and back to league action. As a Gooner it was great to see Jack starring for England but from a betting point of view these friendlies don't do it for me. It was interesting to see Football Elite having a change of approach, I am almost tempted to resubscribe to find out how it goes but I have chose this path and must stick to it. Along with Summer of Football, these two are the ones I would still like to follow but I must admit I enjoy analyzing their markets and prefer not having to drop everything the minute the email comes through to get the odds.
On to Friday's action, the Watford match is the first of my 1 goal margin selections. This one should be a tight match, and what points me to this bet is Palace's recent for. There has been a drop-off and they have lost 4 of their last 7 away games (drew other 3), but most importantly all of them have been by 1 goal. Watford have won 7 home matches this season, including 4 by 1 goal so at around 3/1 this is my play.
£30 Watford to win by 1 goal 4.2 Betfair, 4.1 Ladbrokes
Australia produced a 1 goal winning margin overnight but it was the one I thought would have produced a bigger win for Adelaide and given they had over 15 minutes against 10 men I was surprised they didn't. It does make me wonder if I should follow this system (mentioned last Friday) regardless, but for the time being I will try and use filters to improve chances.
Mind you I still think the three remaining matches have a fair chance of repeating the dose, although the pessimist in me can't see all 4 games being a result! Firstly Melbourne Heart play perennial 1 goal away losers Perth Glory. Perth have now lost 7 of their 9 away matches by 1 and Heart have 3 1 goal home victories.
£30 Melbourne Heart to win by 1 goal 3.75 Bet365
West Sydney has one of the smallest 1 goal winning margin prices I have seen at 3.5 but I still think it is value. The Wanderers have 4 one goal home wins and Newcastle have the same away.
£30 WS Wanderers to win by 1 goal 3.5 Bet365
While I am at it, Sydney also look at good bet on Saturday into Sunday. I should list this with tomorrow's bets but I have already mentioned I have a liking for all the rest to be 1 goal home wins so here it is. Odds of 5.0 with Bet365 look generous, especially as Sydney have 3 1 goal home wins this season and Brisbane have lost 5 of their away matches by 1 goal. Sydney are underdogs for this match but I can't justify the strength of support for Brisbane.
£30 Sydney to win by 1 goal 5.0 Bet365
While it is unlikely that all the matches in a weekend will all be 1 goal wins for the home side, we only need 1 of the 3 to make a profit, and like lottery numbers, they are all independent.
Might be back tonight with Saturday's selections as nearly ready to go or possibly Saturday.
On to Friday's action, the Watford match is the first of my 1 goal margin selections. This one should be a tight match, and what points me to this bet is Palace's recent for. There has been a drop-off and they have lost 4 of their last 7 away games (drew other 3), but most importantly all of them have been by 1 goal. Watford have won 7 home matches this season, including 4 by 1 goal so at around 3/1 this is my play.
£30 Watford to win by 1 goal 4.2 Betfair, 4.1 Ladbrokes
Australia produced a 1 goal winning margin overnight but it was the one I thought would have produced a bigger win for Adelaide and given they had over 15 minutes against 10 men I was surprised they didn't. It does make me wonder if I should follow this system (mentioned last Friday) regardless, but for the time being I will try and use filters to improve chances.
Mind you I still think the three remaining matches have a fair chance of repeating the dose, although the pessimist in me can't see all 4 games being a result! Firstly Melbourne Heart play perennial 1 goal away losers Perth Glory. Perth have now lost 7 of their 9 away matches by 1 and Heart have 3 1 goal home victories.
£30 Melbourne Heart to win by 1 goal 3.75 Bet365
West Sydney has one of the smallest 1 goal winning margin prices I have seen at 3.5 but I still think it is value. The Wanderers have 4 one goal home wins and Newcastle have the same away.
£30 WS Wanderers to win by 1 goal 3.5 Bet365
While I am at it, Sydney also look at good bet on Saturday into Sunday. I should list this with tomorrow's bets but I have already mentioned I have a liking for all the rest to be 1 goal home wins so here it is. Odds of 5.0 with Bet365 look generous, especially as Sydney have 3 1 goal home wins this season and Brisbane have lost 5 of their away matches by 1 goal. Sydney are underdogs for this match but I can't justify the strength of support for Brisbane.
£30 Sydney to win by 1 goal 5.0 Bet365
While it is unlikely that all the matches in a weekend will all be 1 goal wins for the home side, we only need 1 of the 3 to make a profit, and like lottery numbers, they are all independent.
Might be back tonight with Saturday's selections as nearly ready to go or possibly Saturday.
Monday 4 February 2013
Well that puts a different spin on things
Well first weekend of being a tipster of sorts is over. I say tipster in the loosest sense of the word as that is not really the objective of this blog. This is really a story of transition from a successful but in the end restricted portfolio investor - thank for the mention by the way, Rowan - to someone going it alone. Given that I am making my own selections, I thought I might as well share them as well, along with any theories or trends that I come across.
Probably the most successful part of an otherwise below average weekend was the theory bets on 1 goal home wins in Australia, of which 2 out of 3 won. With the international break this week I will try to find some other leagues that follow similar lines, although this market is not the most liquid. I think this is one of the main differences between following tipsters and going it by yourself: Betfair prices would dry up instantly and accounts would be marked pretty quickly if 40 or so bets on Melbourne Victory to beat the Melbourne Heart by one goal was tipped by a major player. I did follow Football Betting Data for a while, but it was very hard to get any amount of money on after a while and bets such as over 10.5 corners quickly turned to over 11.5, making it a tricky decision to take a worse price or a worse spread. This was one of the main reasons I stopped following Laurent Marty in the rugby as handicap spreads changed so quickly.
So overall I had 12 bets over the weekend (that is matches I bet on, some had a combination such as dutching 1 and 2 goal margins) for a total stake of £400. This resulted in 3 wins and a loss of £73.75. This weekend feels like a microcosm of what Matt from Football Elite wrote in his email today. In my notebook I analysed most of the matches in the leagues I followed and came up with quite a lot of bets, including those mentioned in Saturday's post on the Arsenal match. As both myself and Rowan have mentioned I am an Arsenal fan, and somehow I talked myself out of backing a HT/Stoke bet at 4.2 and Arsenal to win the second half at 1.8. I justified this on the basis that they were not the type of bets I was having success with and this seems a sensible strategy, although I have had some wins with Win/Win HT/FT selections. What it has made me realise is that the writing up of selections can have an effect on what you do, be it in response to previous comments, or just wanting to limit yourself to save time and possible exposure to too many bets. I think this is also influenced by the relatively small bank size I mentioned in Saturday's post. Whereas £400 is a drop in the ocean compared to what I was betting on some Saturdays (Skeeve's selections would often be more by themselves), it is a large proportion of my betting bank and I don't want to blow it all at once. I really do admire the likes of Summer of Football and Football Elite with their small size banks and they get the ROC to go with it, but it must make it more nerve wracking for them on a poor run.
Maybe I should follow Matt's lead and have a shortlist selection. Needless to say if I had listed these bets there would have been wins galore including, QPR to draw and 0-0, Newcastle to win the second half, Derby -1 vs Huddersfield, Bayern to win to nil and a few others.
Hopefully this interlull will enable me to really get a grip on what I am doing and have a look at some other sports I used to follow. I would like to add top class horse racing and tennis to the mix, but feel this could take a bit of time. I suppose I have until Cheltenham in just over a month!
Thanks to all those that have popped over from TPI to have a peek and thanks for the comments. Back later in the week if I find any interesting angles!
Probably the most successful part of an otherwise below average weekend was the theory bets on 1 goal home wins in Australia, of which 2 out of 3 won. With the international break this week I will try to find some other leagues that follow similar lines, although this market is not the most liquid. I think this is one of the main differences between following tipsters and going it by yourself: Betfair prices would dry up instantly and accounts would be marked pretty quickly if 40 or so bets on Melbourne Victory to beat the Melbourne Heart by one goal was tipped by a major player. I did follow Football Betting Data for a while, but it was very hard to get any amount of money on after a while and bets such as over 10.5 corners quickly turned to over 11.5, making it a tricky decision to take a worse price or a worse spread. This was one of the main reasons I stopped following Laurent Marty in the rugby as handicap spreads changed so quickly.
So overall I had 12 bets over the weekend (that is matches I bet on, some had a combination such as dutching 1 and 2 goal margins) for a total stake of £400. This resulted in 3 wins and a loss of £73.75. This weekend feels like a microcosm of what Matt from Football Elite wrote in his email today. In my notebook I analysed most of the matches in the leagues I followed and came up with quite a lot of bets, including those mentioned in Saturday's post on the Arsenal match. As both myself and Rowan have mentioned I am an Arsenal fan, and somehow I talked myself out of backing a HT/Stoke bet at 4.2 and Arsenal to win the second half at 1.8. I justified this on the basis that they were not the type of bets I was having success with and this seems a sensible strategy, although I have had some wins with Win/Win HT/FT selections. What it has made me realise is that the writing up of selections can have an effect on what you do, be it in response to previous comments, or just wanting to limit yourself to save time and possible exposure to too many bets. I think this is also influenced by the relatively small bank size I mentioned in Saturday's post. Whereas £400 is a drop in the ocean compared to what I was betting on some Saturdays (Skeeve's selections would often be more by themselves), it is a large proportion of my betting bank and I don't want to blow it all at once. I really do admire the likes of Summer of Football and Football Elite with their small size banks and they get the ROC to go with it, but it must make it more nerve wracking for them on a poor run.
Maybe I should follow Matt's lead and have a shortlist selection. Needless to say if I had listed these bets there would have been wins galore including, QPR to draw and 0-0, Newcastle to win the second half, Derby -1 vs Huddersfield, Bayern to win to nil and a few others.
Hopefully this interlull will enable me to really get a grip on what I am doing and have a look at some other sports I used to follow. I would like to add top class horse racing and tennis to the mix, but feel this could take a bit of time. I suppose I have until Cheltenham in just over a month!
Thanks to all those that have popped over from TPI to have a peek and thanks for the comments. Back later in the week if I find any interesting angles!
Sunday 3 February 2013
Not the best Saturday, how about Sunday 3rd February
While the system bets in Australia gave me a good morning, the afternoon didn't go to plan. I will comment more after the weekend on results so for the time being lets move on to Sunday's action.
Premier League
I have a feeling that West Brom can hold on for a draw at least against Spurs but am concerned by the Odemwingie affair and its effect so will leave this and hope as an Arsenal fan for a result here. After watching Liverpool against the Gooners on Wednesday I can't see them getting anything at City, even with the hosts without Kompany and Toure. City still have a most impressive home record and Liverpool are so overrated away so I am backing the hosts in a double with Real Sociedad to beat Mallorca.
La Liga
Sociedad are a very strong home side, highlighted by victory over Barcelona last week, while Mallorca really struggle on the mainland.
£35 Double: Man City and Real Sociedad 3.3 Stan James, 3.17 Pinnacle
Athletico Madrid vs Real Betis (20:00)
Athletico have a perfect record at home this season, including some big margin victories. But the big scores have all been with star striker Falcao in the side. When he is not, as is the case today, they have been a lot closer. So I am dutching 1 and 2 goal winning margins to turn a 1.47 favourite into a 2.03 bet.
Dutched selection:
£50 - £27 A Madrid to win by 1 goal 3.75 B365
£23 A Madrid to win by 2 goals 4.5 Betfair, Ladbrokes
Ligue 1
Marseille vs Nancy
Following the same line of attack with Marseille's home game with Nancy. All of OM's home wins have been by 1 or 2 goals and 4 out of 6 of Nancy's away losses have been by 2 goals or less. So again I am attempted to turn a 1.44 choice into an even money prospect.
Dutched selection:
£50 - £26.50 Marseille to win by 1 goal 3.75 B365
£23.50 Marseille to win by 2 goals 4.25 Ladbrokes, 4.2 PP
Premier League
I have a feeling that West Brom can hold on for a draw at least against Spurs but am concerned by the Odemwingie affair and its effect so will leave this and hope as an Arsenal fan for a result here. After watching Liverpool against the Gooners on Wednesday I can't see them getting anything at City, even with the hosts without Kompany and Toure. City still have a most impressive home record and Liverpool are so overrated away so I am backing the hosts in a double with Real Sociedad to beat Mallorca.
La Liga
Sociedad are a very strong home side, highlighted by victory over Barcelona last week, while Mallorca really struggle on the mainland.
£35 Double: Man City and Real Sociedad 3.3 Stan James, 3.17 Pinnacle
Athletico Madrid vs Real Betis (20:00)
Athletico have a perfect record at home this season, including some big margin victories. But the big scores have all been with star striker Falcao in the side. When he is not, as is the case today, they have been a lot closer. So I am dutching 1 and 2 goal winning margins to turn a 1.47 favourite into a 2.03 bet.
Dutched selection:
£50 - £27 A Madrid to win by 1 goal 3.75 B365
£23 A Madrid to win by 2 goals 4.5 Betfair, Ladbrokes
Ligue 1
Marseille vs Nancy
Following the same line of attack with Marseille's home game with Nancy. All of OM's home wins have been by 1 or 2 goals and 4 out of 6 of Nancy's away losses have been by 2 goals or less. So again I am attempted to turn a 1.44 choice into an even money prospect.
Dutched selection:
£50 - £26.50 Marseille to win by 1 goal 3.75 B365
£23.50 Marseille to win by 2 goals 4.25 Ladbrokes, 4.2 PP
Saturday 2 February 2013
Tough work this tipping and selections for Saturday 2nd February
I must say this tipping malarkey is much tougher than I thought. Having posted 5 selections just before the kick-off of the first match it did not take long to realise the pressure on a provider of investment advice. Roma went down a goal quickly and after 20 minutes my goal fest had not started in Germany. Fortunately for me I was going out for dinner so didn't have the opportunity to follow the impending disaster. But in the car journey to the restaurant I was already questioning my reasoning and bank size recommendation.
In a way I was probably right to, regardless of results. Over the long run of following tipsters, I ended up following lower odds, higher ROC services rather than the higher odds, higher ROI ones. My choice of a £1000 bank hadn't involved that much consideration, beyond the fact that £50 was the value I had associated with stronger bets around the evens mark. This correlates with a 20 point bank similar to Summer of Football or ProBets from CDSystems. What it didn't take into account is my real time adjustments to a preference for bets above evens to a slightly higher figure. To be quite honest the £50 selection on Roma at 2.33 was too high, £40-45 was probably more appropriate for this bet. I do still bet at around the even mark, in fact Wednesday demonstrated one of my favourite type of bet at this level: Manchester United at home seem to have a strong preference for narrow wins, so dutching them to beat Southampton by 1 and 2 goals came out at just over evens and was never in much doubt.
I also mentioned that I was already questioning my reasoning within 20 minutes of kick-off. This may seem like hindsight talking, and probably is, but both of the European bets, while fitting relatively strong trends do not fit any of the 116 bets I have had in the last 2 months. The goals bet on Werder Bremen - Hannover match was a first, although I have done a couple of match result and over 2.5 goals combinations. The AS Roma handicap bet at 1.5 was also bigger than I had taken before. My analysis breakdown of Summer of Football also showed much stronger returns in the -0.75 to -1 bracket as opposed to higher.
With this in mind today's selections are hopefully playing to my strengths. As an Arsenal fan I was trying to find an angle to play the Stoke game. On Wednesday I had generally agreed with Football Elite's tip of Arsenal win (one of the few subscriptions left that will run out in February), but actually played it as a DNB variation - Arsenal to win and both teams to score with a score draw cover. I really could not see the Gunners stopping Suarez and co getting at least 1 goal and the calamity defending certainly backed that up. My analysis for today's game did produce a few angles, but again not my usual types so hopefully my experiences of yesterday will be a good lesson to walk before you run. For those interested I was between Arsenal to win the second half at 1.8, Arsenal to win and both teams to score at 3.4 (although not convinced that Stoke's away form, especially at the Emirates merits that) or a draw/Arsenal HT/FT at 4.6.
So on to today's actual selections!
English Premier League
Everton vs Aston Villa (15:00)
One ofmy favourite trend plays, Everton to win by one goal at home. 5 out of 6 of their home wins have all been by 1 goal, 4 of them by the score of 2-1 if you really want to increase the odds! Slightly worried by Aston Villa's level but their matches together have historically been close.
£30 Everton to win by one goal 3.9 Betfair, Ladbrokes, 3.75 188bet and others
West Ham vs Swansea (15:00)
Both of these teams like a draw, although I am not confident in differentiating between a score draw and 0-0 (have a penchant for the score draw option). West Ham have drawn three of the last 7 at home while Swansea have had three stalemates in the last 4 away, all goalless affairs. Another draw seems most likely option to me.
£30 West Ham to draw with Swansea 3.49 Pinnacle
Championship
Birmingham vs Forest (15:00)
Birmingham's home form is still poor with lots of draws. Forest are also registering their fair proportion of draws and the price is quite generous for this scenario. There has also been a large number of 2-2s in their recent history so a cheeky punt at a price is in order!
£25 Birmingham to draw with Forest 3.5 BV, 3.45 Pinnacle
£5 Correct score 2-2 16.5 Betfair, 15 188bet and others
Blackpool vs Barnsley (15:00)
Yet another draw trend. Lots of Blackpool home draws and Barnsley have drawn 2 of their last four away games, including at Leicester. A price of 4 with bet365 looks generous.
£30 Blackpool to draw with Barnsley 4.0 with bet365
In a way I was probably right to, regardless of results. Over the long run of following tipsters, I ended up following lower odds, higher ROC services rather than the higher odds, higher ROI ones. My choice of a £1000 bank hadn't involved that much consideration, beyond the fact that £50 was the value I had associated with stronger bets around the evens mark. This correlates with a 20 point bank similar to Summer of Football or ProBets from CDSystems. What it didn't take into account is my real time adjustments to a preference for bets above evens to a slightly higher figure. To be quite honest the £50 selection on Roma at 2.33 was too high, £40-45 was probably more appropriate for this bet. I do still bet at around the even mark, in fact Wednesday demonstrated one of my favourite type of bet at this level: Manchester United at home seem to have a strong preference for narrow wins, so dutching them to beat Southampton by 1 and 2 goals came out at just over evens and was never in much doubt.
I also mentioned that I was already questioning my reasoning within 20 minutes of kick-off. This may seem like hindsight talking, and probably is, but both of the European bets, while fitting relatively strong trends do not fit any of the 116 bets I have had in the last 2 months. The goals bet on Werder Bremen - Hannover match was a first, although I have done a couple of match result and over 2.5 goals combinations. The AS Roma handicap bet at 1.5 was also bigger than I had taken before. My analysis breakdown of Summer of Football also showed much stronger returns in the -0.75 to -1 bracket as opposed to higher.
With this in mind today's selections are hopefully playing to my strengths. As an Arsenal fan I was trying to find an angle to play the Stoke game. On Wednesday I had generally agreed with Football Elite's tip of Arsenal win (one of the few subscriptions left that will run out in February), but actually played it as a DNB variation - Arsenal to win and both teams to score with a score draw cover. I really could not see the Gunners stopping Suarez and co getting at least 1 goal and the calamity defending certainly backed that up. My analysis for today's game did produce a few angles, but again not my usual types so hopefully my experiences of yesterday will be a good lesson to walk before you run. For those interested I was between Arsenal to win the second half at 1.8, Arsenal to win and both teams to score at 3.4 (although not convinced that Stoke's away form, especially at the Emirates merits that) or a draw/Arsenal HT/FT at 4.6.
So on to today's actual selections!
English Premier League
Everton vs Aston Villa (15:00)
One ofmy favourite trend plays, Everton to win by one goal at home. 5 out of 6 of their home wins have all been by 1 goal, 4 of them by the score of 2-1 if you really want to increase the odds! Slightly worried by Aston Villa's level but their matches together have historically been close.
£30 Everton to win by one goal 3.9 Betfair, Ladbrokes, 3.75 188bet and others
West Ham vs Swansea (15:00)
Both of these teams like a draw, although I am not confident in differentiating between a score draw and 0-0 (have a penchant for the score draw option). West Ham have drawn three of the last 7 at home while Swansea have had three stalemates in the last 4 away, all goalless affairs. Another draw seems most likely option to me.
£30 West Ham to draw with Swansea 3.49 Pinnacle
Championship
Birmingham vs Forest (15:00)
Birmingham's home form is still poor with lots of draws. Forest are also registering their fair proportion of draws and the price is quite generous for this scenario. There has also been a large number of 2-2s in their recent history so a cheeky punt at a price is in order!
£25 Birmingham to draw with Forest 3.5 BV, 3.45 Pinnacle
£5 Correct score 2-2 16.5 Betfair, 15 188bet and others
Blackpool vs Barnsley (15:00)
Yet another draw trend. Lots of Blackpool home draws and Barnsley have drawn 2 of their last four away games, including at Leicester. A price of 4 with bet365 looks generous.
£30 Blackpool to draw with Barnsley 4.0 with bet365
Friday 1 February 2013
Welcome and picks for Friday 1st February
Hello and welcome to Sporting Value. This is a blog to document my
third incarnation as a professional gambler. Horse racing was certainly
the starting point. Going back to the mid nineties I had a small spell
as a professional gambler in the early
internet days, mainly as a devotee of Nick Mordin.
I still have a wonderful collection of books including all the American
texts he recommended. While I had no problem turning a profit, as a one
man band I could never generate the turnover, especially as I couldn't
bring myself to bet the type of sums I knew I needed to make a living.
In December 2010 I decided to give it another bash. Having come across the Secret Betting Club , I set about building a portfolio. The early highlight was definitely On the Nose, back in its free days. I remember being absolutely gutted when missing out on signing up for the paid service while out of town for a funeral. My favourite horse service I have followed is Steve Jones' CD Systems, in particular the Daily Bargain and ProBets arms. Other great racing tipsters that have done the business are Equine Investments and Narrowing the Field.
Horse racing was the turnover driving force of the portfolio, as well as probably the largest profits, but I have also tried most other sports. Football started off with Football Elite, and it was the only ever present in my portfolio, but the one I found Summer of Football the most profitable and rewarding to follow.
Profits flowed for the first 15 or so months, well into 5 figures but the last few did not live up to the the early days. This is by no means a criticism of said tipsters as, contrary to the opinions of most people that I talk to about it, a lot of them are excellent profit generators. The numbers that were first revealed to me through the Secret Betting Club do stack up and it is very possible to make good returns in this game. Where it went wrong was definitely with the bookies themselves.
I imagine anyone who reads this blog is going to be well versed in the problems of being successful with UK bookies, namely they don't want your business. I won't bore you too much with the number of closures, although 3 Ladbrokes accounts closed and 3 Bet365 accounts limited to pennies would be the pinnacle, I won't dane to list the BlueSq, Victor, Stan James closures as this seems to be very much the norm.
So what about now, you may ask? Well after cashing in my chips in October and riding the wave of relief as Skeeve, Summer of Football and Laurent Marty dropped some major sums that would have wiped off even more of the profits, I decided to go back to doing it myself. As an ex Maths teacher and a bit of a statistics addict I thought I would see what I could do. The majority of my subscriptions have been to services that provided a thorough write up as part of their service. I remember reading, I believe, in one of the SBC articles that the best tipsters can act as valuable tutors as well as profit engines. I have decided to start with football and I think I have learned from some of the best. I have particularly appreciated the analysis and thinking of Football Elite and Summer of Football and I like the leagues that they play in. As a big football (arsenal) fan myself I do like to watch quite a bit as well so Oddschecker's European Elite coupon has become something of a virtual home from home.
I thought initially that I would want to play in the 1.8 to 2.8 price range in the same way that FE and SoF, I felt more comfortable playing a bigger prices and more obscure markets. Probably the most successful being winning margin bets.
I have been analyzing and betting since start of December and so far with favourable returns. In total 116 bets have been made (although some of these have been dutching selections), with a strike rate of 39% and a return of investment of 23.55%. 97 out of the 116 bets have been with Betfair or Pinnacle so hopefully no account monitoring necessary.
With this good start in mind I thought I would share some selections with anyone who is interested. this blog is not intended to just be a tipping service, it is hopefully a tale of conversion from a follower of tips to a self selector, someone who can now decide when to place their bets rather than jumping into action whenever the text/email arrives irrespective of what is happening. Certainly the worst experiences were Saturday ice skating lessons for my two daughters when Summer of Football and Laurent Marty threw their multiple selections at me! An iphone is a great tool but fiddling around on oddsportal and oddschecker for obscure Brazilian Serie B and European Challenge Cup handicaps was never fun.
Anyway on to the selections for this Friday:
Bundesliga - Werder Bremen vs Hannover (19:30 kickoff)
A match between an average home team and a very poor away team would point towards a Bremen win but their form has dipped recently. The main trend I can detect is for lots of goals. WB's last 6 home games have had 22 goals and Hannover's last 6 away have had 30. The conservative play would be over 3.5 - ranging from 2.15 to 2.45, while over 4.5 goes up to 4.33. BAsed on a £1000 bank, I will be backing:
£25 on over 3.5 - 2.52 Betfair
£10 on over 4.5 - 4.33 William Hill
Serie A - Roma vs Cagliari (19:45)
Strong, high scoring home team on good run after managerial threats against a very poor away team, looks a good play for the handicaps. Roma have won 4 of last 5 home, all by 2 or more goals, while Cagliari have lost 4 of last 6 away, 3 of these by 2 goals or more. I will be backing Roma with a 1.5 goal handicap.
£50 on Roma -1.5 - 2.23 Pinnacle
Australian A-League
Thank you to Summer of Football for getting me into this league! These three bets are based on what I see as a very strong trend, namely the preponderance of home wins, but not just any home wins, those by a 1 goal margin. So far this season the home team has won 58% of the matches, but 38% of those have been by just 1 goal.
Tomorrows early matches have some strong pointers towards this as well.
Wellington vs Perth (04:00)
Wellington have had a mixed home record of W3 D3 L3 but 2 of those 3 wins were by 1 goal. More relevant is Perth Glory who have lost 6 of their 9 away games, all of them by a 1 goal margin (67% of their matches?)
£30 on Wellington to win by 1 goal - 3.75 Paddy Power, Betfair
Newcastle vs Sydney (06:30)
Again trends point to this bet. All 4 of Newcastle's home wins (out of 8) have been by 1 goal, although only 1 of Sydney's 6 losses have been by 1 goal, there has been an improvement in their form recently.
£30 on Newcastle to win by 1 goal - 3.85 Betfair
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne Heart (08:45)
Victory have won 4 out of their 6 home games by 1 goal and Heart have lost 5 out of their 7 away losses by 1 goal.
£30 on Melbourne Victory to win by 1 goal - 3.75 Bet365
Obviously these are trends bets and will chose this weekend to go differently but I really believe there is value in this angle.
Time is really getting on now and it has taken a lot longer than I thought to write this so I will post now and hopefully be back tomorrow with more selections.
Good luck anyone who follows but I will expect you will want to see a longer track record than this!
In December 2010 I decided to give it another bash. Having come across the Secret Betting Club , I set about building a portfolio. The early highlight was definitely On the Nose, back in its free days. I remember being absolutely gutted when missing out on signing up for the paid service while out of town for a funeral. My favourite horse service I have followed is Steve Jones' CD Systems, in particular the Daily Bargain and ProBets arms. Other great racing tipsters that have done the business are Equine Investments and Narrowing the Field.
Horse racing was the turnover driving force of the portfolio, as well as probably the largest profits, but I have also tried most other sports. Football started off with Football Elite, and it was the only ever present in my portfolio, but the one I found Summer of Football the most profitable and rewarding to follow.
Profits flowed for the first 15 or so months, well into 5 figures but the last few did not live up to the the early days. This is by no means a criticism of said tipsters as, contrary to the opinions of most people that I talk to about it, a lot of them are excellent profit generators. The numbers that were first revealed to me through the Secret Betting Club do stack up and it is very possible to make good returns in this game. Where it went wrong was definitely with the bookies themselves.
I imagine anyone who reads this blog is going to be well versed in the problems of being successful with UK bookies, namely they don't want your business. I won't bore you too much with the number of closures, although 3 Ladbrokes accounts closed and 3 Bet365 accounts limited to pennies would be the pinnacle, I won't dane to list the BlueSq, Victor, Stan James closures as this seems to be very much the norm.
So what about now, you may ask? Well after cashing in my chips in October and riding the wave of relief as Skeeve, Summer of Football and Laurent Marty dropped some major sums that would have wiped off even more of the profits, I decided to go back to doing it myself. As an ex Maths teacher and a bit of a statistics addict I thought I would see what I could do. The majority of my subscriptions have been to services that provided a thorough write up as part of their service. I remember reading, I believe, in one of the SBC articles that the best tipsters can act as valuable tutors as well as profit engines. I have decided to start with football and I think I have learned from some of the best. I have particularly appreciated the analysis and thinking of Football Elite and Summer of Football and I like the leagues that they play in. As a big football (arsenal) fan myself I do like to watch quite a bit as well so Oddschecker's European Elite coupon has become something of a virtual home from home.
I thought initially that I would want to play in the 1.8 to 2.8 price range in the same way that FE and SoF, I felt more comfortable playing a bigger prices and more obscure markets. Probably the most successful being winning margin bets.
I have been analyzing and betting since start of December and so far with favourable returns. In total 116 bets have been made (although some of these have been dutching selections), with a strike rate of 39% and a return of investment of 23.55%. 97 out of the 116 bets have been with Betfair or Pinnacle so hopefully no account monitoring necessary.
With this good start in mind I thought I would share some selections with anyone who is interested. this blog is not intended to just be a tipping service, it is hopefully a tale of conversion from a follower of tips to a self selector, someone who can now decide when to place their bets rather than jumping into action whenever the text/email arrives irrespective of what is happening. Certainly the worst experiences were Saturday ice skating lessons for my two daughters when Summer of Football and Laurent Marty threw their multiple selections at me! An iphone is a great tool but fiddling around on oddsportal and oddschecker for obscure Brazilian Serie B and European Challenge Cup handicaps was never fun.
Anyway on to the selections for this Friday:
Bundesliga - Werder Bremen vs Hannover (19:30 kickoff)
A match between an average home team and a very poor away team would point towards a Bremen win but their form has dipped recently. The main trend I can detect is for lots of goals. WB's last 6 home games have had 22 goals and Hannover's last 6 away have had 30. The conservative play would be over 3.5 - ranging from 2.15 to 2.45, while over 4.5 goes up to 4.33. BAsed on a £1000 bank, I will be backing:
£25 on over 3.5 - 2.52 Betfair
£10 on over 4.5 - 4.33 William Hill
Serie A - Roma vs Cagliari (19:45)
Strong, high scoring home team on good run after managerial threats against a very poor away team, looks a good play for the handicaps. Roma have won 4 of last 5 home, all by 2 or more goals, while Cagliari have lost 4 of last 6 away, 3 of these by 2 goals or more. I will be backing Roma with a 1.5 goal handicap.
£50 on Roma -1.5 - 2.23 Pinnacle
Australian A-League
Thank you to Summer of Football for getting me into this league! These three bets are based on what I see as a very strong trend, namely the preponderance of home wins, but not just any home wins, those by a 1 goal margin. So far this season the home team has won 58% of the matches, but 38% of those have been by just 1 goal.
Tomorrows early matches have some strong pointers towards this as well.
Wellington vs Perth (04:00)
Wellington have had a mixed home record of W3 D3 L3 but 2 of those 3 wins were by 1 goal. More relevant is Perth Glory who have lost 6 of their 9 away games, all of them by a 1 goal margin (67% of their matches?)
£30 on Wellington to win by 1 goal - 3.75 Paddy Power, Betfair
Newcastle vs Sydney (06:30)
Again trends point to this bet. All 4 of Newcastle's home wins (out of 8) have been by 1 goal, although only 1 of Sydney's 6 losses have been by 1 goal, there has been an improvement in their form recently.
£30 on Newcastle to win by 1 goal - 3.85 Betfair
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne Heart (08:45)
Victory have won 4 out of their 6 home games by 1 goal and Heart have lost 5 out of their 7 away losses by 1 goal.
£30 on Melbourne Victory to win by 1 goal - 3.75 Bet365
Obviously these are trends bets and will chose this weekend to go differently but I really believe there is value in this angle.
Time is really getting on now and it has taken a lot longer than I thought to write this so I will post now and hopefully be back tomorrow with more selections.
Good luck anyone who follows but I will expect you will want to see a longer track record than this!
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